Calculated Risk

The headlines today scream “betrayal” in the wake of Wendy Alexander’s decision yesterday to back a Scottish referendum on independence, apparently without consulting Downing St first. Scottish Labour, it seems, will not only support the SNP’s planned referendum bill but will pressure for it to be moved forward from its scheduled introduction in 2010. This marks a tectonic shift in UK politics since this time last year.

The mock outrage emanating from sources close to Downing St regarding Alexander’s new thinking seems rather artificial. This becomes more clear when viewed in the context of the Prime Minister’s initial response yesterday, which offered implicit backing to Alexander’s position. It has been no secret that support for a referendum has attracted widespread debate within Scottish Labour since May 2007. I first argued the case for Labour support for a referendum to Richard Simpson MSP seven months ago. Nevertheless, the combination of the search for a good story and buying the Downing St narrative has led to the media fundamentally misreading the situation. The Guardian’s headline is subtitled "support for Scottish independence", when what we are supporting is a referendum on Scottish independence on the premise that the SNP will lose.

Winning the referendum will attack the soul of the SNP, illustrate the gulf between party and Scottish support for independence, and answer the independence question for a generation. Salmond conceded to Andrew Marr that “about a quarter” of the Scottish population supported independence, and outlier polls range from 19% to 44% support. There is nothing to fear.

This shows Scottish Labour taking the initiative in Scottish politics, for the first time since last May. I’ve been astounded by the lack of initiative from the opposition. There is no reason why we can’t be legislating as much as the SNP, a point Alexander realised when she argued there was nothing stopping Scottish Labour bringing forward its own referendum bill.

Urging the SNP to hold the referendum sooner puts the Scottish Government in an awkward position – if Scottish independence is as important as the Government keeps telling us, why are we waiting until 2010?

How does this work with the Calman Commission? When the Commission reports back, the unionist parties can propose a referendum bill with the options that the Commission suggests including independence, at a time of their own choosing, which the SNP will be forced to support. Simple as that.

We need to see more of this from Scottish Labour, and also UK Labour – taking risks, and taking the initiative.